The global economic situation has deteriorated dramatically in the past month as lockdowns in many countries, especially the industrialized economies of Europe, North America and Japan as well as the aftershock from China, impact on output and employment.
In April, the IMF forecast a 3% decline in world GDP this year, but this is being revised downwards as the global situation worsens. On its current forecast, GDP in advanced economies will fall 6%, in emerging markets 1%, and in Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6%. Actual declines are likely to be greater.
This is because earlier hopes of a V-shaped recession with a very steep rebound in the second half of 2020 have receded and there is now talk of a "Nike tick" recession - a steep decline followed by a lengthy but slow recovery.
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